2026 Thermal Stress 

CURRENT CONDITIONS 

El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027. 

The Florida Keys

• Reef areas in the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas National Park are in a Bleaching Watch.

• The alert levels for the Florida Keys are expected to remain at least a Bleaching Alert Level 2 for the next 5-8 weeks (November), and then decrease to a Bleaching Watch over the next 9-12 weeks (December). 

Southeast Florida 

• Biscayne National Park,  Kristen Jacobs Coral Aquatic Preserve (KJCAP), and areas in Miami-Dade County are in a Bleaching Watch. 

• The alert levels for Southeast Florida are expected to remain at least a Bleaching Alert Level 2 for the next 5-8 weeks (November), and then decrease to a No Stress over the next 9-12 weeks (December). 

WHAT THE COMMUNITY IS REPORTING

As of September:

• There are reports from light paling to significant bleaching in Broward county.

As of August:

• Folks diving at 90 feet in North Miami noticed a strong south flowing current, with a thermocline at 75 feet at 81°.

• Fish kills have been reported in the Keys, as well as low dissolved oxygen in some areas.

• The lower and middle Keys are experience the highest thermal stress so far. 

• As of 8/18, at Dry Rocks and Grecian Reef in the Upper Keys, no bleaching was seen. The water temp was 88°.

  • Inshore at John Pennekamp Coral Reef State Park there is much more bleaching and paling. OANN are showing blecahing associated mortality. 

  • The Lower Keys look much worse. All of the elkhorns and staghorns are bleached. Boulder corals and bigger, older colonies are looking better. At Eastern Dry Rock the water temp was 93° at 30 feet. 

• Disturbance Response Monitoring surveys are just now starting to see some light paling and bleaching in Delray, Florida, although it was noted that these sites were next to an outfall. Sites in Boyton and Delray Beach were around 89-90° at 55-60 feet.

• In the Dry Tortugas, there have been observations of paling SSIDs, water temps of about 88°, and partial bleaching among some other corals. 

• In the lower Keys and in the Dry Tortugas there are reports of dead and dying seafans and sea whips. 

As the end of July:

• In John Pennekamp Coral Reef State Park in July, mortality was seen on fire corals, sea fans and other gorgonians, as well as hard corals. 

• Community reports and observations are noting paling, partial bleaching, and bleaching from Monroe all the way to Palm Beach County. 

• At Rainbow Reef in Miami-Dade County, there is paling in some more hardy species (PSTR, MCAV) and bleaching with more susceptible species (SSID, ACER).

• In the North Miami and Hallandale area, the water temperature was 86° at 60 feet. No paling or bleaching was observed.

  • However, at 16 feet there was paling and bleaching of Porites as well as some tissue loss disease. Overall, less than 30% of live coral was bleached across the site.

• At Newfound Harbor in the Keys, there are reports of paling and bleaching of star coral, bouldering coral, branching coral, sea fans, and fire coral. Overall, ~75% of live coral was bleached in this area.

• Caulerpa mats have been reportedly reforming near Miami Beach! Should anyone come across them, please contact Brian Walker (walkerb@nova.edu).

• Brian Walker and his team are setting up an experiment with non-antibiotic disease treatments.

  • If you or anyone you know comes across sites with disease, please let Brian Walker (walkerb@nova.edu) know!

INTERVENTIONS

Coral reef practitioners have been preparing for this event (e.g., moving priority corals to land-based facilities), setting up monitoring and experiments (e.g., tracking individual corals to determine thermal tolerance), and implementing interventions (e.g., moving corals to deeper water). Recent response actions include:

• Federal and state funding has been used to establish emergency response space at several land based Florida facilities.

• The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, in coordination with the US Army Corps of Engineers, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, and DEP, invoked emergency permitting procedures to:

  • Establish two new deeper water nurseries(one off of Key Largo and the other in the Lower Keys). 

  • Deploy experimental floating shade structures (attached to existing vessel moorings) over shallow coral nurseries. 

• DEP has provided emergency response funding to Mote Marine Laboratory and Sustainable Oceans and Reefs (SOAR) to move corals, primarily Acropora species, to the deeper nurseries and to make modifications to the experimental ‘Kanopi’ shade structures prior to deployment.

RESOURCE LINKS

RESOURCE DOCUMENTS

CONDITION REPORTS 

Header photo: FWC FWRI